It's bad enough that Datamation columnist Mike Elgan predicts the imminent demise of satellite radio. Now comes a study that asserts the Internet is headed for an iceberg, and probably before the next presidential election.

Using Internet and IP infrastructure modeling along with data from current and projected traffic, Nemertes Research Group projects that "demand will exceed access line capacity within the next two to four years."

In its study, Internet Interrupted: Why Architectural Limitations Will Fracture The 'Net, Nemertes concludes:

• If current trends continue, demand will continue to grow to a point at which it outpaces capacity at the access layer. Globally, this will occur in approximately 2011/2012.

• In North America, indications are that sophisticated users already areexperiencing capacity limitations.
  

• [P]ressure to manage service delivery is forcing many service and content providers to migrate their traffic off the "public" or Tier-1 peered Internet in favor of dedicated pipes to the ISP aggregation points.
  

• [A]s demand growth accelerates we are quickly depleting logical addresses that identify destinations on the Internet. And, IPv6, largely touted as the answer, doesn't appear to be poised to fill the gap.
  

• The bottom line: The Internet continues to be bedeviled by infrastructure issues that, if left untreated, will dramatically curtail application innovation in the coming years.

While it may be tempting to lay much of the blame for excess demand on greedy multimedia downloaders and the proliferation of personal PDAs, Nemertes cites another trend as playing a big part in the increased demand: the rise of the virtual worker.

"The movement of workers from corporate inhabitants to virtual workers is substantial," the report states. "89% of companies identify their workplace as "virtual". Among them, 29.8% of their employees are virtual, on average."

In practical terms, as just about any network manager can attest, this means:

Virtual workers drive increased demand because they typically are located remotely from corporate resources, such as servers and applications. They expect seamless communications, regardless of where they conduct business. And they often require more advanced communication and collaboration tools than those who work at headquarters. Organizations use technologies such as videoconferencing and Web conferencing to cut down on travel and keep these virtual workers connected to the rest of their teams.

And with the recession and continued rise in travel costs (don't be fooled by the temporary drop in the price of oil), the number of virtual workers should only increase.

Nemertes includes some hedge language ("It's important to understand that we’re not saying this will occur. The model is an 'if-then' model. ...Obviously, a lot can change between now and 2011."), but anyone reading the study will come away with the impression Nemertes is expecting the worst.

Meanwhile, industry analyst Point Topic reports the number of broadband subscribers worldwide has hit the 400 million mark. Ten years ago there were a little more than 57,000.

Point Topic's report was commissioned by the Broadband Forum, an industry trade group. Not surprisingly, this report draws paints a much sunnier picture than the Nemertes study. Here's Point Topic senior analyst Oliver Johnson (quoted from this press release):

"[W]e're in the early days of a new era, which is going to be much more about quality than quantity. The emphasis is now going to shift to providing high bandwidth, high quality broadband, that can deliver multiple, steady, pin-sharp images for applications."

End of a glorious era, or beginning of a glorious new era? One thing's for sure: They can't both be right. Any predictions?