Assessing Another Apple Rumor

No, this isn't about Steve Jobs and his health. It's about news reports that Apple is hard at work on its own netbook. Many in the tech media seem pretty sure it's true, based on some details attached to the story.

Here, for example, is Jeff Bertolucci of PCWorld:

You can take many Apple rumors with a grain of salt, but this one may have legs. According to a DigiTimes report, Taiwan-based Quanta Computer will build a new netbook computer for Apple. Quanta manufactures laptops for most of the top consumer electronics vendors, so its involvement in an Apple netbook project wouldn't come as a surprise.

DigiTimes, which cites a story in the Chinese-language Commercial Times, says Taiwan-based Wintek will supply touch panels for long-rumored Apple netbook, and that panel shipments will likely start in the second half of 2009.

Here's Wei Yi Lim of Dow Jones Newswire:

Apple Inc. is planning to launch a netbook computer with a touch screen monitor as early as the second half of this year, two people close to the situation told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.

The mini laptop computers will likely have monitor screens that are between 9.7-inches and 10-inches, one person, who declined to be named, said.

Another person said other specifications and functions are still under evaluation.

And Nick Farrell of The Inquirer:

After famously saying that Apple could not make a $500 netbook that was not a piece of junk, Jobs' Mob is about to make one.

That is not to say that it will cost less than $500, it is just that it seems Apple has finally woken up to the fact that in the middle of a recession no one wants to spend more than they have to on a bit of computer gear, no matter how nice it looks.

These writers and many others seem pretty sure it's a done deal. But not everyone is convinced. Here's David Coursey, writing in PC World:

There has been much speculation about a supposed new Apple netbook computer, and the rumors have once again re-emerged. Forgive me for pointing out the obvious, but the current MacBook Air would seem to fit most definitions of netbook, except for one. Why does Apple need another?

Apple may be--probably is--working on something, but it probably won't be a real netbook anymore than my iPhone is a full-fledged computer.

Meanwhile, Jacqui Cheng of Ars Technica takes a more balanced view, before concluding:

There are many reasons for Apple to release a netbook-like device, and reasons for it not to. Even though the company continues to beat the drum against sub-$500 devices, however, it's clear that Apple is at least entertaining ideas in this space. We're just not convinced any Apple netbook prototypes will ever emerge from Cupertino.

Now it's my turn to speculate. No doubt, Apple entering the sub-$500 market would represent a sea change in the company's philosophy. But the global economy is undergoing a painful transformation, and companies that survive do so by adapting to changing market conditions. Coursey says there's only one way the MacBook Air doesn't fit the definition of a netbook. I'm assuming he means the $1,800 price tag, which pretty much excludes the ultraportable from the netbook category.

Still, it seems that many media folks are placing an awful lot of stock in the original stories reported by Commercial Times and DigiTimes. Dow Jones went a little further and got two people to confirm off the record, but even then, one of the sources said specs and functions still are to be determined. Which, to me, means whether the device fits the definition of a netbook still is to be determined.

Of course, Apple could end the speculation today by announcing (or denouncing) the netbook rumor. Don't hold your breath, though; part of Apple's marketing strategy always has been to stoke the rumor mill to build buzz. And you can't say it hasn't been effective.

My meaningless prediction: Apple will unveil a netbook-like machine priced in the $600-$800 range. In other words, a netbook-plus. Or a MacBook McAir, if you will.