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Is the Tablet Apple's Waterloo?

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by James Maguire


In the interest of full disclosure I'll admit it upfront: I'm an Apple fan. A nearly rabid one. I've worshipped, uh, I mean used Apple machines since the '80s. Even as they've (occasionally) crashed and (always) cost me extra bucks -- allowing my Windows friends a satisfied sneer -- I've never doubted my religion. It's Apple, baby.


And yes, I own an iPhone. Which means, yes, I spend more on my cell phone than do most people. But it's worth it. The sexy handheld is the ultimate tech thing. It helps me do everything -- watch a movie, find a restaurant, shoot a video, answer email. It fits in my pocket and prompts envy when I pull it out. It's no wonder that a staggering 33 million have sold since its '07 debut. 

And now comes the tablet. Hmmm...I don't know. Even for someone who salivates for Apple on command, the gadget lust just isn't kicking in. I mean, I have an iPhone, which travels everywhere right in my pocket. I've got a laptop, which is a portable full-fledged work machine. 

Am I the only Apple aficionado wondering why -- in hard times -- I need to part with a major chunk of cash for....a smaller laptop? Do I really need a third device, after a cell and a notebook? 

Where do I carry it? If I have my backpack I have room for my laptop, so am I going to bring both? Without my backpack am I supposed to carry it my hands the whole time? 

The tablet is presumably Apple's push into the scorchingly hot netbook market. The problem is, netbooks are exciting because they're so bargain basement cheap -- sub $350 gets you in the game. But Apple won't sell a keychain for sub $350. Rumors about the tablet say it'll retail for about a cool grand to start. Ouch. Then the price will (if forecasts are correct) fall to $750. Still high. 

Here's the real challenge: isn't Apple cannibalizing its own product line? Whereas the iPhone added an entirely new customer base, the tablet essentially competes with Apple's low-end laptops. Are there that many Apple fanatics who will buy a $750 tablet and a $999 laptop? Don't think so.

Unless, of course, Apple is expecting Tablet-mania to be so overwhelming that it inspires Windows users to switch. Doubt it. 

So I'm curious as to the public reaction upon unveiling. Apple has been aggressively empire-building these last couple years, with the unstoppable iPhone conquering the ultimate market, mobile. But the tablet? Napoleon may have just entered Russia.  

James Maguire is senior managing editor of Internet.com's IT Management channel.

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5 Comments

Kevin said:

It's strange, because I am virtually the exact opposite case to you. I have always be a staunch anti-apple person. I have a cell phone, which does everything I need, so I don't need to spend money on an iPhone. I don't like to use Windows, so I have a cheapish laptop that I run Linux on (I get all the non-windows and slight incompatibility fun you get from a Mac, but I get it at about a third the cost!). However, I *am* keen to inspect an apple tablet for purchase. And I'd be willing to pay a premium for it ($750 - $1000). The reason is that, I have a desktop at work, so I don't really anticipate working on it much (or I'd want Linux anyway). When I'm at home, I mainly want to look on the internet and maybe read a few papers. I think that the tablet form-factor will be well suited to these activities and I expect that Apple will have put considerable effort into making these activities very intuitive and easy. Basically, since there's no good competitor to what I expect they'll produce, I think I'd go for it.

Dan said:

It's not strange, Kevin. James doesn't understand the appeal so assumes nobody else is interested, either.

Know what I want out of the tablet? An iPod Touch with a bigger screen and longer battery. Seriously, that's it. More power, usb ports, etc, etc would be wonderful. So would a wacom sensor to add pressure sensitivity to it. I don't expect any of these things and still want it.

I don't want to sit in my chair and balance a laptop. I'll draw all night on my ipod, though. Or at least as long as the battery lasts.

If you don't see the need for a tablet then don't get one. What's so hard to understand about this? I have no interest in a Mac laptop. None at all. The apps I need when I'm biking or hiking run on Windows and Windows laptops are far cheaper to boot.

So because Apple gives people a new option they're cannibalizing their own sales? Walk into any economics class and say that. You'll be laughed out of the building..

David Ross said:

James, I agree with you completely! I don't see the market for this product! Microsoft and others have tried to introduce a tablet, and it always fails. Yes, Apple will pull a few tantalizing tricks to make this product somewhat interesting - but mass appeal? I don't see it.

Victor J Kinzer said:

Dan: You are correct it's not strange, what is strange is your dismissive attitude about this article. James doesn't understand the appeal and is asking if he is alone. That is in fact the opposite of assumption.

I find it interesting that you bring up the cannibalization argument and then say walk into an economics class. This isn't an economics question. This is in fact a business class question. If you have ever taken a marketing class, (and by the way I have) one of the first things they talk about during product development is cannibalization. I have a grand to spend on a new computer. I want something small, sexy, status filled. Those are the things that are important to me. I would have purchased a $999 Mac, because I want the mac status. Now they have a tablet though, it's sexier, it's still within my budgetary limitations. I check, it does everything I need it to and I'll be the swankiest boy on my dorm floor. I buy the tablet. I buy the tablet when I would have thrown the grand at them anyway. They put millions into developing a new product to make not 1 additional cent of revenue. This is cannibalization, it is a business marketing concern, and talking about it wouldn't get you laughed out of any business course. In an econ course they would just look at your funny and ask if you had the right room.

If apple releases a tablet that is about a grand it will cannibalize their low end Mac laptop. It will end of story. The question is will it bring in enough revenue from other sources as well to make it a good business move. Whatever the answer to that question, it is a conversation worth having, and all this article does is bring up a point of view, express the authors opinion that he feels his point of view on this is not out of the norm and then query if people agree with him. You accuse him of being dismissive of other people's opinions and living in his own little world. That is in fact what you are doing, and you do it with a demonstrable misunderstanding about the content of his article.

Seamus said:

Perhaps you miss the point.

Perhaps the Apple tablet is going for people who are not like you?

My parents are struggling into the computer age. They have all sorts of trouble using a mouse, using email, they are just about getting the hang of Web browsing & writing letters leaves the desktop strewn with documents.

The iPad is a game changer because it will be accessible by those struggling with modern technology. This is the device that will give them the opportunity to do the things a modern generation takes for granted. Perhaps it's not for Linux geeks or hardened computer users with all the latest tech, but just fine for the rest of the world.

But that's not all. This could revolutionise the classroom. You won't need to carry a laptop, but will be able to do all the tasks laptops in classrooms do. Not only that, you will be able to get on-demand content from iTunesU - all those class notes, videos, presentations.

Even more...

If you are on the road or on holiday, you will be able to watch films and TV, read books and use it to store the photos from your digital camera and sync when you get back home.

Yes, I can do all this with my iPhone, Sony eReader and UMPC, but it's easier with one device only.

This device is still two months out from being released, I'm sure there will be software changes before launch and continual updates. The difference between the iPhone at launch and now is huge. The iPhone has become more relevant for more people after each software update, the same will be said for the iPad.

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